Current Geo-Political Environment, Hybrid Conflict and Pakistan

Pakistan must develop full spectrum deterrence capabilities if it is to answer the faced hybrid threats: Amb (r) Munir Akram

Pakistan is faced with a multidimensional assault on its sovereignty and it needs to develop full spectrum deterrence capabilities alongside an efficient strategy if it is to answer the hybrid challenges faced.

This was the premise of the talk by Ambassador (retd) Munir Akram who was speaking at the session titled ‘Current Geo-Political Environment, Hybrid Conflict and Pakistan’, which was organized by Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), Islamabad on November 29, 2018. The other speakers present on the occasion included Ambassador (retd) Zamir Akram, Ambassador (retd) Ali Sarwar Naqvi, Mirza Hamid Hasan, former secretary, Water and Power, and DG-IPS Khalid Rahman, while Dr Adnan Sarwar, HoD, International Relations, National University of Modern Languages (NUML) was moderating the session.

Ambassador (retd) Akram, while delivering a keynote speech, said that Pakistan was encountering hybrid challenges from top to bottom and east to west, the most common weapons of which included terrorist attacks, economic and political blackmailing, fueling of false propaganda, spreading of anarchy and disappointment among the masses, and cyber-attacks, all of which aimed at igniting the social unrest. He said that Pakistan has been a victim of such hybrid attacks since long, with the war of 1971 being the first instance of such kind which resulted in the separation of East Pakistan.

The speaker also pointed some of the areas that were being targeted in the ongoing hybrid war against Pakistan. He said that on one hand there were false rumors and misunderstandings being propagated against Pakistan nuclear capabilities and safety, on the other hand India and US were proactively pursuing a nuclear cooperation deal among them. He said that Pakistan was also being blamed for providing safe heavens to Taliban, whereas in real their original hideouts were all situated in Afghanistan.

The uprising in Kashmir, according to the former diplomat, was another notable blame that was being laid on Pakistan to put pressure, whereas the Kashmiri struggle was in fact indigenous and in reaction to the Indian oppression. The speaker termed the 2004 Musharraf-Vajpayee agreement a big blow for the Kashmir cause in this regard, which, according to him, made Pakistan accept not to let its territory be used for acts of ‘terrorism’ against India, without taking into account the acts of terrorism committed by India against Pakistan and Kashmir.

CPEC was highlighted as another area by the senior diplomat which was among the major targets of hybrid assault. The speaker said that the project was being and will be opposed by India and US to stop China from becoming the two-ocean power (South China Sea and Indian Ocean). This tug-of-war may result in quite a bit of unrest in this region and we must be prepared to respond to the resultant threats.

Speaking of Pakistan’s vulnerabilities against the hybrid threats, Akram said that Balochistan was an important target of hybrid threats which is evident from the fact that India not only provides asylum to Baloch rebels but also presents them on their media to propagate its false narrative. The placement of advertisements for Baloch freedom on buses in Geneva was another instance of a hybrid attack on Pakistan’s sovereignty but sadly we didn’t do much to ensure such things won’t happen in future again.

Speaking from a global perspective, Akram said that a tectonic shift was taking place in international relations at present due to various reasons, with the disruptive policies of Donald Trump and his approach of pursuing unilateralism instead of multilateral cooperation being the major one. The post-world war 2 set-up – in which institutions including United Nations, World Bank, IMF, WTO, etc. were constituted – was losing its ground, while the rising power of China and Russia were also playing a significant role in shaping the present geo-political environment.

The speaker also pointed five regions of the world which he regarded most vulnerable to a nuclear threat, while terming South Asia and South China Sea as the most under-estimated ones among those.

Akram concluded his speech stating that Pakistan was one of the most battle-hardened nations in the world, also having a nuclear capability and nation of 220 million on its back. All it needs to do now is to polish its capabilities in the vulnerable areas while focusing on socio-economic development, education, and promotion of the message of unity and harmony for all its provinces, ethnicities, minorities and other subdivisions of the society, in order to bring all of them onboard to tackle the hybrid threats.

Ambassador (r) Zamir Akram highlighted cyber world as one uncharted area where Pakistan was faced with a throwing challenge of a hybrid war, whereas Amb (r) Ali Sarwar Naqvi and Hamid Hasan stressed on strengthening diplomatic capabilities of Pakistan to communicate Pakistan’s narrative to the world community effectively.

DG-IPS Khalid Rahman in the end concluded the session stating that the hybrid warfare was not a temporary challenge but a long-term concern, thus we need to be vigilant, proactive, aligned and strategically equipped to fight the hybrid challenges faced ahead.