‘Grey Hybrid Conflict’ the most challenging warfare tactic of our times: Gen Zubair Hayat

Although not new, the concept of ‘Grey Hybrid Warfare’ has resurged off-late in a redefined form that is aided by the evolution of technology, and encompasses hybrid tools like economic coercion, sanctions, propaganda, political pressures, cyber tactics, and engineered coups.

The notion was shared by General Zubair Mahmood Hayat NI(M), Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, while addressing a seminar titled ‘Emerging Geo-Political Environment and the Threat of Grey Hybrid Conflict: Pakistan’s Perspective’ which was held at Expo Centre, Karachi on November 27, 2018, as part of IDEAS 2018 in joint-collaboration of Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), Islamabad, and Defence Export Promotion Bureau (DEPO).

In addition of Gen Zubair Hayat, the session was addressed by Maj Gen Ahmed Mahmood Hayat, chairman, DEPO, Ambassador (r) Munir Akram, Pakistan’s former permanent representative to the UN, Lt Gen (r) Naeem Khalid Lodhi, HI(M), Rasulov Sadullo Shukurboevich, HoD, Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies, Uzbekistan, who was presenting the paper on behalf of Ambassador (r) Vladimir Norov, Head of Institute for Strategic and Inter-Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan, Dr. Ivan Safranchuk, senior fellow at the Institute of International Relations (research division of Moscow State Institute of International Relations-MGIMO), Lars G. A. Hilse, a global thought leader and cyber defense strategist from Germany, Senator (r) Javed Jabbar, and Barrister Ahmer Bilal Soofi, a renowned expert of international law.

Gen Zubair Hayat, while making a keynote speech, said that ‘Grey Hybrid Conflict’ was the most challenging warfare tactic of modern times, due to which the wars of today were not being confined to battlegrounds and armies anymore, instead they have expanded to non-linear strategies, unconventional recruits and multidimensional plans aimed at wreaking havoc at the targeted state’s systems, mechanisms, and infrastructures. Guns and cannons have now been replaced by smart phones and laptops, and the conventional wars have been replaced by hybrid attacks. Economic restrictions, political pressures, unsolicited interference and propaganda, according to him, were some of the other modern weapons that completed the arsenal of a hybrid war.

The General deplored that Pakistan too was faced today with multidimensional political, economic, social and ideological hybrid threats both internally and externally and the aim of these hybrid attacks was to hurt the progress of the state encompassing all development areas including megaprojects, education, reputation, and consequently the building of a national narrative.

The CJCSC however was optimistic stating that even against all odds, Pakistan was committed to fight terrorism and extremism, which despite being underappreciated by a few, does not undermine the country’s resolute national response. He said that every attack, whether conventional or grey hybrid, was making the country’s resolve stronger, and every attempt to divide the nation was only uniting it further. Nevertheless, the speaker also stressed on the need to respond to the ever evolving hybrid threats strategically, and apprising the masses over the matter was one of most important part of the resolve according to him.

Earlier in his inaugural speech, General Ahmed Mehmood Hayat said that today’s security environment was taking shape through intricate interplay of geo-strategy, geo-economics and geo-politics. The situation had provoked global power contestation, shattering the erstwhile order and hence making the world of today more uncertain, aggressive, and therefore more dangerous.

The speaker pointed that Pakistan too was not immune to the global power contestation and its geo-strategic calculus was already being impacted by it significantly. He stressed on the need to fully understand the phenomenon and ensure timely and effective strategic response in the face of this looming threat.

The chair of the seminar Ambassador (r) Munir Akram said that the modern trends in warfare had altered the lopsided global equation of supremacy and the regional and bilateral balance of power was now being seen in an evolved context. He was also wary that the brewing conflicts in Korean peninsula, Iran, and South Asia could lead to actual encounters that could potentially cross the nuclear threshold.  He expounded that since the norms of not using nuclear weapons were now in danger, nations were now resorting to other strategic offensive means, such as Grey Hybrid Conflicts, in order to achieve their interests and objectives.

The former caretaker defense minister Lt Gen (R) Naeem Khalid Lodhi enlightened the audience by saying that the emergence of ‘Grey Hybrid Conflicts’ in modern days represented the employment of all the sciences and arts of warfare that were available to mankind.  The major components of today’s hybrid wars included surgical strikes, drones, terrorist attacks, cyber attacks, economic undermining and assertions of diplomatic pressures, and unless the military and political leadership comprehends and devises a comprehensive counter-strategy, it will not be able to respond to the emerging threats.

Rasulov expressed that the hybrid wars, as well as the forms and methods associated with them, were significantly different from the ones previously used, and consequently, the methods to resist to them were also not the same. He said that the evolving nature of these threats and attacks were the main potential danger, but most affected states were not realizing that a hybrid war was already being waged against them.

Urging the affected states to take the matter seriously, the speaker also expressed Uzbekistan’s interest in expanding cooperation with Pakistan and other partners to study contemporary challenges brought forth by the phenomenon of hybrid warfare, and develop joint measures and strategies to counter the emergent threats in order to ensure regional and international security.

Dr Safranchuk viewed that there were good opportunities to diminish risks of hybrid competition through regional cooperation. He said that many countries of this continent, such as Russia, China, Iran, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Pakistan, were in the need of security as well as development, and no other instrument was there to reconcile the common interests of these regional actors except for the regional organizations. The speaker was positive that any advancement along such lines will not only reduce the air of competition between these countries, but will also converge them on the path of mutual growth, development and regional security.

Hilse was of the opinion that cyber tactics and artificial intelligence were going to play a big role in forthcoming hybrid conflicts. Cyber threats, in the speaker’s expert opinion, were particularly difficult and painstaking to deal with as they even involved infiltration into government, military and security systems. Social media was another vulnerable area pointed by the speaker to focus upon as it had made the manipulation of people opinions and perceptions insanely easy. The cyber security expert cautioned that the cyber threats were out there and they were very real, and it was thus the need of time to include cyber elements in to the country’s risk assessments, military tactics and security strategies as an integral part.

Jabbar said that the use of cyberspace to spread false information was one of the main ingredients of today’s art of war and Pakistan has been a victim of many such covert attacks off-late. He said that the social media was being used to attack the psyche of the young minds by igniting negative feelings amongst them. The use of monetary dominance by international powers was another tool which was being used against Pakistan as a potent threat. Then there were also a few sections of the country’s own media which were seen aiding the agendas of adversaries at times, and amidst all this confusion, it was becoming increasingly difficult to differentiate between a genuine conscience-based criticism and a mala fide propaganda.

In the end of his speech, Jabbar emphasized on the need to reform UNSC as per the requirements of modern times, seeing this the only mechanism available at present to avoid devastating consequences caused anywhere due to hybrid fights.

Soofi opined that the international law fare too was now becoming a subset of hybrid warfare as there have been several instances where the law fare was being used to fulfill the interests of those who enjoy greater international command.

The international law expert said that when a country, in modern times, signs a treaty, it effectively gives up a portion of its sovereignty up to the extent of the scope of that treaty. He was however confident that there still were some opportunities for like-minded countries to come on board together and adopt a collective approach to safeguard their interests and objectives; and regional organizations like SCO (Shinghai Cooperation Organization) may have a huge role to play in future in this regard.