Pakistan-India tensions might last 3 or 4 more months, but war unlikely

The tensions between Pakistan and India might last for another three or four months until the general elections held in India, Khalid Rahman said, adding that there is very little possibility of war.

ISLAMABAD, Jan. 12 (Xinhua) — The tensions between Pakistan and India might last for another three or four months until the general elections held in India, a Pakistani analyst said on Monday, adding that there is very little possibility of war.

 

"Perhaps the tensions will continue for the next three or four months until the elections are held in India," said Khalid Rahman, Director General of Islamabad based Institute of Policy Studies, in an interview with Xinhua.

 

Before India’s general elections in May, political parties in India will take a hard stance against Pakistan to win popularity at home, said Rahman.

 

Pakistan-India tensions were heightened as the Indian side accused Pakistan-based militant groups of involvement in November’s Mumbai attacks, which killed more than 170. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said last week that "official agencies" in Pakistan were also involved in the Mumbai attacks. But Islamabad has denied the allegations.

 

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said Sunday that it would respond to a dossier of evidence from India in the next few days.

 

The spiraling tensions between the two nuclear-armed countries have sparked speculations among the media that India might carry out surgical strikes inside Pakistan.

 

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said on Sunday that Pakistan’s defense is in strong hands and the nation will not be frightened by any threats.

 

"That is just a war of words… there is very little possibility of war between the two countries," said Rahman.

 

"The two countries can not afford a war" because they both have nuclear weapons, Rahman said. Rahman also said the international community, particularly the United States, don’t want a war or conflict between the two countries.

 

"The Unites States need Pakistan also, particularly with regard to the campaign in  Afghanistan. It can not ignore Pakistan."  "If some kind of war takes place between Pakistan and India, Pakistan would not be able to provide assistance to the Americans and NATO forces in Afghanistan," Rahman said.

 

BUILDING TRUST

Pakistan and India, who have fought three wars since 1947, have suspended the four-year peace process after the Mumbai attacks.

 

"At this moment, the two countries should have genuine dialogue between leadership, and establish mechanism where two governments could talk with each other directly," said Rahman.

 

Rahman hoped that the two governments could remain calm and jointly combat terrorism and warned of irritating remarks through media.

 

Rahman said the root cause for the tensions between the two countries is the Kashmir issue.

 

"Whatever meetings were taken place at different levels, the real development toward good relations was not seen mainly because of the Kashmir issue," Rahman said.

 

"After several months, the tensions might be removed, but bilateral relations will only be good when the Kashmir issue is resolved," said Rahman.