The Fate of Doha Development Agenda

Doha Round Prospects

The conclusion of Doha Round hinges on the resolution of issues relating to agriculture (domestic support measures by USA, Special Safeguard Measures and protection of sensitive products of developing countries, market access), Non-Agriculture Market Access (coefficients for reduction of tariffs under Swiss Formula by developed and developing countries) and services (Members schedules of commitments) and balancing of commitments and concessions by Members. The main hurdle is the USA. As the US presidential election will be held in November 2012, the possibility of the US Administration entering in a meaningful dialogue in the year is remote. The US Bill on five year subsidy to agricultural passed by Congress in 2008 is also a bottleneck in early resumption of Talks. The European Union is stuck in the Euro crisis and may be reluctant to join the Talks at this stage.      
    
Apart from areas of disagreement, other factors responsible for slow progress are:

•    The WTO decisions are generally taken on the basis of consensus (as against majority vote in IMF and other organizations), and consensus building is a difficult and time consuming process. It is particularly so as it involves 153 (now 156) sovereign states having varying interests and dealing with over twenty-one big and small subjects.
•    The Members are mandated to adopt the results of Talks as a ‘single undertaking’ which they will base on balancing concessions and commitments. Thus even if agreement is reached in some areas, it will remain open till agreement on all major issues is reached. This impeded the overall progress also.  
•    The issues are complex needing definition, explanation, clarification, identification and exchange of information before agreeing on negotiating modalities and undertaking negotiations. This was a time consuming process, especially when the formal Talks were suspended in July 2006 due to problems in key sectors.  
 
Though early conclusion is not in sight, the possibility of abandoning the Talks is remote. The stakes are too high and the fall-out effects too serious. The delay has already cost the world heavily with billions of dollars lost in global trade, output and jobs. The credibility of WTO is likely to erode. The economic compulsions are motivating the nations to enter into bilateral and regional arrangements, diminishing the significance of multilateralism. On the other hand, a positive factor is the commitment of leaders from all quarters (politicians, businessmen and academics) to bringing the Talks to a successful conclusion. The Ministers at their December 2011 meeting approved the ‘Political Guidance’ highlighting the importance of the Multilateral Trading System and WTO, reaffirming that development is a core element of the WTO, and committing to work actively towards a successful multilateral conclusion of the Doha Development Agenda.